In recent times, the glass market has continued to rise in price. The main price of futures has risen from around 2,100 yuan/t in early April to the current record high of nearly 2,700 yuan/t, which has risen by 35% in more than a month.
The driving force for glass price increases is that the supply growth is capped and the downstream demand is concentrated, and the second is that the global release of water is expected to push up the prices of bulk commodities.
As of the end of April, a total of 246 domestic glass production lines were producing production lines after excluding zombie production capacity, and the glass production capacity utilization rate was 84.01%, an increase of 3.99% year-on-year.
After the adjustment of May 1st, Fujian Longtai's newly built 700t production line was ignited. After the holiday, the glass production capacity increased by 4.2 million boxes compared with before the holiday. However, the production line in the Shahe area that was originally scheduled to be ignited has not been ignited due to environmental reasons. In addition, in late May, some production lines in East China have plans to stop production after cold repairs, and the supply side may not see a large increase.
Facing the temporary increase in the supply side, the continuous fierce demand has given a strong boost to the rise in glass prices. At present, the Shahe market in Hebei is relatively active. Traders are accumulating goods, and the middle and lower reaches of Central China have successively received orders for replenishment. The market has a good business investment atmosphere. The market generally continues to expect price increases in the market outlook.
According to data from Longzhong Information, in terms of current spot prices, the mainstream price in North China is 2,351 yuan/t; the mainstream price in East China is 2,480 yuan/t; the mainstream price in Central China is 2,416 yuan/t; the mainstream price in South China is 2,432 yuan/t; The regional mainstream price is 2310 yuan/t, and the spot market still shows a pattern of strong north and stable south.
Good trading in the spot market superimposed the advance replenishment of downstream deep processing enterprises, and the speed of manufacturers' destocking was steadily changed. According to data from Zhuo Chuang Information, as of the end of April, the total inventory of sample enterprises nationwide was 22.4 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 8.76 percent from the previous month. After the 51 price market continues to digest, this week’s total inventory of sample companies across the country was 22,234,600 heavy boxes, which continued to decrease by 1.6% month-on-month and 75.18% year-on-year. The inventory days were 11 days. Among them, the inventory of most manufacturers in central China has fallen. Low.
With the shortage of supply in the market and the declining inventory capacity, the upward trend of glass prices seems to be unstoppable. Then, in the face of frequent increases in futures prices, where is the future high point of glass? What are the risks in the process of chasing high?
First of all, from the perspective of supply and demand, the supply side is limited by the overall production capacity of glass*, the possibility of excessive supply growth is low, and in the recent period when production profits have continued to improve, there has been no excessive production capacity. Crazy expansion, so supply-side countermeasures to prices are temporarily difficult.
Then, it is the demand that will lead to a change in the trend of glass in the future. Since the beginning of the year of real estate completion last year, due to the constraints of the construction period, the glass market demand is strong. From the order point of view, due to the rigid time requirements for the delivery of new houses, the engineering end has placed orders in advance, and the glass manufacturers have sufficient orders before September this year.
In summary, affected by strong demand and tight supply, glass prices will continue to remain strong on the trend. In the short term, futures prices may continue to rise and rise, but the risk that needs to be vigilant in the future is the overheated callback and long positions after the continued rise in futures prices. The possible profits will be realized.
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